The latest Sky News poll indicates that the Scottish National Party (SNP) is narrowing the margin with Labour in Scotland. Despite this, Scottish votes could still significantly benefit Sir Keir Starmer at the upcoming elections.
According to an exclusive YouGov survey, Labour holds a 35% share in Scotland, while the SNP follows closely behind at 29%.
Although the Scottish Nationalists are making progress in catching up with Anas Sarwar’s party, if the actual results on 4th July align with the poll, it would lead to substantial gains for Labour nationwide.
The performance of Labour in Scotland has always been a critical factor in determining their chances of securing a majority in Westminster.
On the flip side, the poll deals a severe blow to the Conservatives, as YouGov places them at only 11%, on par with the Liberal Democrats – a dire situation for the party serving as the official opposition in Holyrood.
However, voter sentiments evolve when considering their constituency in the forthcoming Scottish elections.
As of 18th June, voter preferences shifted to 28% for the SNP, 24% for Labour, 10% for the Conservatives, and 7% for the Lib Dems.
This trend highlights that Scots approach UK and Scottish elections differently, indicating a window for potentially expressing discontent through a protest vote.
This dissatisfaction could stem from either frustration towards 14 years of Conservative governance in Westminster or as a warning to the SNP following their prolonged tenure in Holyrood.
The upheaval within the SNP leadership over the past 18 months, coupled with the breakdown of their coalition with the Green Party, may prompt voters to explore alternative options, yet a significant portion remains indecisive.
SNP leader John Swinney in Musselburgh, Edinburgh. Pic: PA
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A total of 1,059 individuals aged 16 and above were surveyed by YouGov between 20th and 25th June exclusively for Sky News.
Out of the respondents in Scotland, 14% indicated a change in their voting intentions over the past month.
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The ongoing campaign has not solidified everyone’s voting decisions.
Out of those surveyed, 37% attributed their shifts in voting plans to the conduct of parties and their leaders.
Anas Sarwar at the Scottish Labour manifesto launch in Edinburgh. Pic: PA
Voters are closely monitoring every move, especially regarding how parties address issues of utmost importance to them.
For Scottish voters, healthcare and the NHS take precedence above all other concerns.
Healthcare emerged as the top election issue for voters, with 60% indicating it as a decisive factor in their voting choice, as opposed to 34% in a broader UK survey.
Interestingly, the NHS remains a top priority despite being a devolved matter.
Following healthcare, 52% of voters rank the cost of living as a critical issue, while 35% consider the overall economy, 20% focus on immigration, and Scottish independence is a concern for 17%.
Many voters remain undecided, with time rapidly running out before the elections.
