Today commemorates the first year since Yevgeny Prigozhin led his Wagner forces on Moscow.
This event posed a unique challenge to the authority ofVladimir Putin.
Such a situation had not been witnessed in the almost 25 years of Putin’s rule.
However, a year later, the Russian president seems to have an even firmer hold on power. He has recently begun another six-year term as the leader, having won with 87% of the votes, according to official figures.
So, how did this transformation occur, and what is the current status of Wagner?
Strategic Response
“His method of addressing this issue was rather subtle,” noted journalist and Russia’s security services expert Andrei Soldatov when speaking to Sky News.
Despite the missteps that led to the revolt, Putin’s tactical acumen remains strong, according to Soldatov.
“He refrained from immediately retaliating against those perceived to support Prigozhin, instead opting to downplay the severity of the situation,” explained Soldatov.
There was no hasty crackdown or punitive measures. Observing events from London, the delayed response may have seemed weak at the time, but Soldatov believes it was a calculated move to prevent escalating the situation.
“By denying its existence, there was no need for an immediate reaction,” he stated.
“This is a way to manage fear.”
This approach appears successful, as many Russians, based on our observations in Moscow this week, seem unaware of the incident.
Concealed from the Public Eye
In a makeshift tribute to Wagner combatants in a Red Square alley, various photos of fallen fighters, including Prigozhin, and flags with the group’s emblem were displayed on a fence.
While some passersby engaged with the memorial, a majority seemed unfamiliar with the mutiny when asked about it, possibly due to the state-controlled media.
The uprising, a major headline in Britain, received less attention in Russia due to media censorship.
‘Putin’s Adaptations’
However, this was just one part of the strategy.
In response to dissenting voices from the pro-war faction, such as Prigozhin, who believed the Kremlin’s stance on Ukraine was weak, Putin sought to convey a more forceful message, as per analysts.
“Following the mutiny, a more aggressive crackdown on Putin’s most militant critics was witnessed,” highlighted Nigel Gould-Davies, a senior fellow specializing in Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
For instance, nationalist Igor Girkin, a key figure in Crimea’s annexation in 2014, was apprehended in July for extremism and later sentenced to four years in January.
“Putin has drawn valuable insights from this experience,” Gould-Davies stated.
The Removal of Right-Wing Critics in the Security Service
Concerns over the safety of having right-wing critics within the security service have led to a recent purge.
Prigozhin’s Mysterious Death
In a tragic incident, Yevgeny Prigozhin met his demise in a plane crash last year while traveling from Moscow to St. Petersburg. The circumstances surrounding the crash remain a mystery.
Following Prigozhin’s death, his army of ex-convicts and mercenaries came under the Kremlin’s control, with many integrating into the army, national guard, or other private military organizations. The remnants of Wagner were rebranded as Russia’s Africa Corps, now operating in the region.
Recent events within the Ministry of Defence have seen several high-ranking officials arrested on corruption charges, signaling an effort to consolidate Putin’s control. The removal of Sergei Shoigu as defence minister initiated a thorough purge of top brass by the security services.
Remembering Prigozhin’s Legacy
Despite his controversial legacy, Prigozhin is not forgotten. Memorials, like the one at his grave in St. Petersburg and a bronze statue unveiled in his honor, serve as reminders. Mourners, including supporters from regions bordering Ukraine, continue to pay their respects.
Nevertheless, Prigozhin’s association with criminal activities blurs the lines between heroism and treachery, raising questions about public perception.
Implications for Putin’s Authority
While Prigozhin’s memory lingers, it is unlikely to undermine Putin’s authority. The public’s reluctance to discuss the matter openly suggests a climate of fear and caution in Russia, underscoring the prevailing political environment.