Recent polls present unfavorable predictions for Rishi Sunak, as one indicates a decrease of four points and another suggests that his party is set to win only 72 seats.
A survey conducted by Savanta for The Sunday Telegraph reveals a decline of four points for the Tories, bringing their vote share down to just 21% – the lowest figure reported by that pollster since the final days of Theresa May’s premiership in early 2019.
In a positive turn for Nigel Farage, the poll shows Reform UK gaining three points with 13% of the vote.
Additionally, a separate Survation poll commissioned by Best for Britain and published in The Times forecasts that the Conservatives would secure merely 72 seats in the forthcoming parliament, whereas Labour is expected to win 456 seats.
This outcome would grant Labour a significant majority of 262 seats, surpassing the landslide victory achieved by Sir Tony Blair in 1997. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats are projected to secure 56 seats, Reform seven seats, and the Greens one seat.
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The Savanta survey, conducted from 12-14 June and involving 2,045 adults aged 18 and above, also indicates a two-point increase for Labour, bringing their vote share to 46%.
Chris Hopkins, the political research director at Savanta, remarked that the survey paints a grim picture for the Conservative Party, suggesting “nothing short of electoral extinction.”
“The hopes of Conservative candidates are being shattered by consecutive polls indicating an increasingly dire situation for the Conservative Party – and we are only midway through the campaign,” he stated.
“There is a palpable sense that things could worsen further for the Conservatives, and with postal votes set to arrive in millions of letterboxes, time is running out for Rishi Sunak.”
These two surveys follow a YouGov poll on Thursday night that placed Nigel Farage’s party ahead of the Tories for the first time – with 19% of the vote for Reform versus 18% for the Conservatives.
This development led Mr. Farage to assert that Reform serves as the “alternative to Labour” in the upcoming election.
Mr. Sunak has consistently argued that a vote for Reform would “essentially give a blank cheque to Labour” – a notion that Mr. Farage has dismissed.
Survation polled 22,000 individuals between 31 May and 13 June. On 4 June, early in the polling interval, Mr. Farage announced his leadership of Reform and his intent to run as a candidate in Clacton, Essex,