The European Space Agency (ESA) has announced that it is vigilantly observing an asteroid comparable in size to a football field that may potentially collide with Earth in just over seven years.
This asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, is assessed to have a one in 83 odds of directly striking, which could result in “significant destruction to a localized area,” as stated by ESA.
The celestial body, measuring 100m by 40m, is currently situated approximately 27 million miles away and is drifting further from the planet. However, its trajectory will intersect with Earth’s orbit on December 22, 2032.
A near miss is the more plausible scenario, with the asteroid likely to pass within a few thousand miles.
The Space Mission Planning Advisory Group, led by ESA, will convene to discuss the most recent findings regarding the asteroid at a meeting in Vienna next week.
If the risk of impact is substantiated, they will provide formal recommendations to the United Nations and initiate discussions on potential “spacecraft-based responses to the possible threat,” the agency mentioned in a statement.
Dr. Simeon Barber, a space scientist from the Open University, informed Sky News: “We shouldn’t be excessively concerned – at least not right now.”
“This is because our early detection systems often overstate the chances of an impact with Earth.”
“In the initial phases, we are unable to calculate its trajectory with precision, thus the likelihood of impact must incorporate this uncertainty.”
“As our capabilities for identifying Earth-bound objects enhance, we may receive an increasing number of alerts like this.”
“It’s crucial that we strike the appropriate balance between acknowledging the potential threat seriously while not overreacting in these preliminary stages of discovery when the path remains uncertain.”
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‘Safeguard our home planet’
Just over two years ago, NASA collided a spacecraft with the 160m-wide asteroid Dimorphos and successfully modified its orbit.
At the time, NASA administrator Bill Nelson remarked: “It is our collective duty to safeguard our home planet. After all, it’s the only one we have.”
Near-Earth Asteroid 2024 YR4 was initially detected by a telescope in Chile. Since the beginning of January, astronomers have been monitoring the asteroid to assess its dimensions and movement.
It is anticipated that the asteroid will become less visible in the upcoming months as it continues to move further from Earth. Increasingly powerful telescopes will focus on the rock to acquire as much information as possible regarding its trajectory.
Once it fades from sight, it will not reappear until 2028.
What would be the implications of such an impact?
The Earth experiences a direct collision with an asteroid of this magnitude only once every few millennia.
In 1908, a marginally smaller asteroid—estimated to measure 60m wide—detonated over Siberia, obliterating 80 million trees over an expanse of 830 square miles.
