An election that is ‘too close to determine’ is a phrase as ancient as democracy itself. However, this year’s US election truly embodies that sentiment.
In spite of the Democrats’ impressive rebound in the polls following Kamala Harris assuming the nomination from Joe Biden in August, the US Electoral College framework – along with Donald Trump’s dedicated supporters – does not ensure her triumph.
This is due to the fact that, although it is the presidential and vice-presidential nominees that appear on the ballot, Americans are technically voting for electors who will formally endorse their chosen candidate.
States possess varying numbers of electors based on their population – with a total of 538. Securing the presidency necessitates achieving at least 270 (over half).
Traditionally, most states rarely change allegiance. When aggregating these so-called ‘safe’ states, Ms. Harris currently holds a slight edge over Mr. Trump with 225 Electoral College votes compared to his 219.
In addition to this, the two parties concentrate nearly their entire strategies on merely seven ‘swing’ states that will ultimately determine the result. These states are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.
Pennsylvania predominantly wields the power to unlock the White House. This is attributed to its status of possessing the highest Electoral College votes among the swing states; thus, the winner here is also likely to claim adjacent battlegrounds Michigan and Wisconsin, given their comparable demographics.
Here, we delve into the diverse paths each candidate could embark on to reach that significant figure of 270 Electoral College votes.
In the 2020 election, Joe Biden won all the swing states except for North Carolina. This year, the polls indicate a tight race there.
While replicating a 2020 scenario wouldn’t necessitate Ms. Harris taking North Carolina, she must secure Georgia.
Some polling has hinted that the Democrats may have lost traction among Black and Hispanic voters since the previous election, complicating the retention of both Georgia and Arizona – especially considering Mr. Trump’s firm bases in those regions.
Ms. Harris is also heavily counting on the support of younger voters.
“There is uncertainty surrounding the demographics that Harris is depending on this time,” remarks Professor Shaun Bowler, a political researcher at the University of California Riverside. “Younger voters typically have lower turnout rates compared to older voters – and we lack substantial data on first-time voters in this election.”
A more straightforward pathway to a Kamala Harris presidency would involve prioritizing Pennsylvania and its neighboring ‘blue wall’ states.
Pennsylvania is already represented by a popular Democrat governor – Josh Shapiro – and John Fetterman’s victory in the mid-terms of 2022 turned one Republican-held Senate seat blue.
“It appears to be more achievable than other swing states,” states Professor Bowler. “In addition to a very well-liked Democrat governor, there is also a well-established South Asian community in Philadelphia.”
However, Professor John Lapinski, director of elections at Sky’s partner network NBC News, cautions: “No one truly knows who is leading in Pennsylvania; this is precisely why this race is so close.”
In 2016, the Republicans seized Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin – along with Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina.
Mr. Trump’s appeal among white, non-educated voters may enable him to reclaim the so-called ‘blue wall’ states up north this time around.
Polling has also seemingly lulled the Democrats into a misleading sense of confidence regarding the blue wall in the past. Hillary Clinton was significantly ahead of Mr. Trump in Wisconsin back in 2016, but ultimately lost there. More generally, polls have often over-inflated anticipated levels of Democrat support in recent years.
Professor Lapinski adds: “Historically, there has been a tendency to underestimate Trump. Significant efforts have been made to rectify this in the polls.
“Yet, while Harris is channeling more resources into most of these states than Trump – one must never underestimate his capacity to mobilize voters.”
With both campaigns focusing their resources primarily on Pennsylvania, Mr. Trump could achieve a victory there – consequently, he would only need to secure Georgia and North Carolina to reach 270.
The assassination attempt against him in July occurred during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. However, despite the Trump campaign’s efforts to leverage this incident, Mr. Biden’s choice to withdraw shortly thereafter seems to have overshadowed it.
“The pace of events has been so dynamic that it has faded from people’s immediate concerns,” states Professor Bowler.
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Georgia was among the pivotal states that Mr. Trump incorrectly asserted was “stolen” from him in 2020, and he continues to face allegations of election interference there. Republican leaders in Georgia are still attempting to implement modifications that would permit officials to decline certifying the vote count in that state.
This presents a narrow pathway to a victory for Mr. Trump, as it positions him precisely at 270 Electoral College votes.
Additionally, he must secure Maine’s second congressional district, wherein there is no ‘winner takes all’ strategy, and Electoral College votes are allocated by districts. However, he successfully won this district in both 2016 and 2020.
Securing wins in the Southern states will not guarantee a Trump victory on its own. The former president must also triumph in at least one northern swing state.
This could very well be Pennsylvania, as the majority of campaign resources are concentrated there, or possibly the smallest in terms of Electoral College votes – Wisconsin.
Nonetheless, Wisconsin shares a border with Minnesota, where the Democrats’ vice presidential candidate Tim Walz is the governor. This situation provides his campaign with straightforward access to Wisconsin voters, thus complicating matters for Trump, as stated by Professor Bowler.
Ultimately, the Trump campaign might forfeit the crucial contest for Pennsylvania as long as it secures victories in all four southern battlegrounds.
His anti-immigration policies have particularly struck a chord with voters in Arizona and Nevada, leading him to win both states in 2016 and 2020.
In the event that Democrats prevail in the North and Republicans in the South, an alternative tiebreak scenario may arise.
Similar to Maine, Nebraska’s Electoral College votes are distributed by Congressional district. Over the years, Nebraska’s second Congressional district has developed into a notable swing area.
If Ms. Harris captures Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, but falls short in Nebraska’s second district, she will find herself tied with Mr. Trump at 269 votes.
However, in the 2020 election, Mr. Biden secured the district by a larger margin compared to Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Nebraska Republicans attempted to alter voting regulations to favor Mr. Trump, yet the plan fell short due to one state senator’s refusal to endorse it.
A tie could also occur if Mr. Trump fails to retain Maine’s second district.
Although these scenarios are not highly probable, they effectively equate to a Trump victory since the deciding vote would shift to the House, where Republicans enjoy a majority.
Data contributed by Daniel Dunford, senior data journalist
