The images emerging from Beirut are disconcerting, to say the least, and the forecasts for the immediate future are even more alarming.
As the repercussions of the significant assassination of Hassan Nasrallah continue to unfold, numerous urgent inquiries are demanding clarification.
Most importantly, is the Middle East on the brink of exploding into a regional confrontation that jeopardizes everyone? This has been the caution for nearly a year—are we on the verge of it materializing?
Not if the United States and its allies can intervene.
Stay updated: Iran cautions that Israel will ‘regret their actions’
Hezbollah is classified as a terrorist organization by the US, UK, and various other Western nations, having claimed the lives of hundreds of their nationals over time. There is no denying the “measure of justice,” as described by President Joe Biden, in light of the death of its leader.
However, there is also apprehension about what may follow. From the president’s office downward, we are hearing urgent appeals for de-escalation and a diplomatic resolution. Consequently, the United States has dispatched military resources to deter Hezbollah’s backers in Iran from taking drastic actions. But will that suffice?
Lebanese Red Cross workers examine a damaged building. Pic: AP
Efforts led by the US to manage the crisis in the Middle East have not succeeded.
A high-ranking Middle Eastern diplomat conveyed to Sky News that this assassination is a direct affront to the US president.
“Despite all the munitions and multi-million-dollar support given to the Israelis,” he stated, “the least they could have granted him during the final weeks of his presidency was a ceasefire in the region.”
With diplomatic efforts halted, the trajectory ahead relies on both Iran and Israel.
Iran might feel compelled to act. It may worry that the extensive missile stockpile it provided is now at risk, necessitating intervention to protect Hezbollah.
Smoke rises following the collapse of a structure in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Pic: AP
For years, the Iranians have viewed Hezbollah as a form of protection for the moment Israel might launch an assault on Iran itself. If they perceive their ally on the verge of complete downfall, would they consider intervening?
If intervention occurs, Israel’s allies, primarily the United States, may feel obligated to support it. The extensive conflict that has been anticipated for almost a year could engulf the region in turmoil.
However, there are compelling reasons for Iran to avoid hasty actions.
The Middle East may seem perilous and erratic, yet certain principles and expectations still apply amid its chaos.
Despite their extremist ideology, the ayatollahs in Tehran are pragmatic and prioritize maintaining their grip on power above all else—a rule that has governed the Middle Eastern landscape since they assumed control 45 years ago.
Is it rational or wise to escalate tensions and offer direct support to Hezbollah when it is at its weakest? The Iranian regime itself is not in a robust position, as it faces crippling economic sanctions and mismanagement alongside the aftermath of months of civil unrest, which has since been subdued.
Moreover, there are limitations to what Iran could accomplish through direct military involvement in a conflict situated 2,000km away. The Iranians might conclude that this phase in the ongoing conflict against Israel has come to a conclusion. They are known to think in long-term perspectives. Could it be time to consolidate and prepare for future battles?
Undoubtedly, there will be days of significant unrest and turmoil, unlike anything we have rarely witnessed before. The memorials and burials of Nasrallah and his associates are likely to incite considerable anger and elevate tensions. But what transpires after that?
Ultimately, that decision also hinges on Israel’s actions.
Individuals stand adjacent to IDF tanks in northern Israel. Picture: Reuters
It might currently feel empowered and take the opportunity to launch a ground invasion in Lebanon to force Hezbollah further from the border. However, this could present an exceptionally perilous time, potentially embroiling supportive militias and Iranian forces stationed in Syria.
The rugged terrain of southern Lebanon poses significant challenges for an army like Israel’s, which relies heavily on infantry and armored vehicles. They could become entangled in a protracted and arduous campaign, which could further destabilize the area.
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What does Nasrallah’s demise signify for Hezbollah?
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Additionally, there is the situation within Lebanon itself. A tenuous agreement among the disparate factions stemming from its civil conflicts during the 1970s and 80s has persisted for years, yet this always-fragile equilibrium is now at risk. The balance of its multi-faceted political landscape may have been dramatically disrupted by the elimination of its most formidable influence.
If Lebanon regresses into internal conflict, regional stability will also suffer greatly.
The Middle East stands on the precipice of further unrest. Both Western and regional diplomats are tirelessly striving to avert a crisis, yet recent initiatives have all resulted in setbacks, with neither Israel nor Hezbollah appearing receptive to negotiation.
