The likelihood of the YR4 asteroid from 2024 colliding with Earth by the end of 2032 has risen once more, as per data from NASA.
Recent assessments indicate a 3.1% probability of the celestial body striking our planet in just under eight years.
This marks a notable shift since the European Space Agency (ESA) predicted in January that the chances were merely 1.2% for a direct collision.
Subsequent calculations revealed a decrement of 2.3% in these odds. In contrast, astronomers equate the odds of winning a substantial lottery prize to roughly one in 14 million.
The heightened probability denotes that the asteroid—comparable in size to a football pitch—poses the greatest threat to Earth in contemporary asteroid forecasting, which could result in “extensive damage” to an area if it impacts.
Researchers continue to emphasize that there is no reason for panic, as the impact probability may vary. They are striving to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the asteroid’s path.
NASA, along with ESA’s Webb Space Telescope, will monitor the asteroid for several additional weeks before it vanishes from sight as it travels toward Jupiter.
It will not be observable again until 2028.
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‘We will have all the information we need in a month’
NASA calculations indicate a potential ‘risk corridor’
The data currently suggests that if the asteroid enters Earth’s atmosphere on 22 December 2032, it is likely to traverse a significant central belt of our planet, passing over numerous major urban centers.
Projections indicate that the asteroid might move along a “risk corridor” above regions that accommodate millions of inhabitants, although NASA has yet to specify which cities and towns would fall within this area.
NASA researchers remarked: “In the improbable event that 2024 YR4 is on a path to impact, the collision would take place somewhere along a risk corridor that spans the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.”
Asteroids are celestial objects that scientists consider to be remnants from the formation of the solar system approximately 4.6 billion years ago.
Learn more:
What we know about the asteroid
Nuclear weapon ‘could redirect asteroid’
Millions of rocks are orbiting within the expanse between Mars and Jupiter, an area recognized as the main asteroid belt.
Occasionally, these objects are displaced from the belt, adopting a new trajectory similar to this asteroid.
Experts have previously indicated that they would not be surprised if the likelihood of impact ultimately dwindles to zero “at some point”.
