This week, the wildfires that have been sweeping across Los Angeles County might represent the “most catastrophic” in contemporary United States history.
Within a mere three days, these wildfires have engulfed tens of thousands of acres, potentially incurring an economic toll of up to $150bn (£123bn), as projected by the private forecasting agency Accuweather.
Sky News has combined a range of open-source methodologies, data interpretation, satellite imagery, and social media clips to investigate the origins and reasons behind the fires, alongside calculating the estimated economic and ecological damages.
Officials estimate that over 1,000 structures have sustained damage thus far, with the actual number likely being significantly greater.
“In reality, it’s probable that approximately 15,000 or even more buildings have been lost,” remarked Jonathan Porter, Accuweather’s chief meteorologist.
This destruction includes some of the nation’s priciest real estate, alongside vital infrastructure.
Beachfront properties in Malibu were annihilated by the Palisades fire. Pic: PA
Accuweather anticipates that the total extent of damage and economic losses from the fires could fall between $135bn and $150bn.
“Clearly, this will stand out as the most catastrophic wildfire in the history of California and probably the most devastating wildfire in modern American history,” stated Mr. Porter.
“This estimate is based on the incidents we have observed so far, along with a projection of the near-term consequences of the fires,” he noted.
The assessments were generated utilizing a diverse range of data sources, encompassing property damages and evacuation efforts, in addition to long-term repercussions such as job and wage reductions and a drop in regional tourism.
The Palisades fire, which has incinerated at least 20,000 acres, has emerged as the most significant fire to date.
Satellite imagery from Sentinel showing the Pacific Palisades shortly after the Palisades fire was reported, indicating already burned land in red. Pic: Sentinel Hub
Analysis of satellite footage and social media recordings reveal that the blaze was initially spotted near Skull Rock, part of a 4.5-mile hiking trail, situated northeast of the affluent Pacific Palisades district.
This footage was captured by hikers on the trail around 10:30 AM on Tuesday, January 7, coinciding with the fire’s outbreak.
Simultaneously, this footage of an aircraft descending at Los Angeles International Airport was recorded. A growing plume of smoke is noticeable in the hills in the backdrop – the identical region where trekkers filmed their recordings.
The region’s strong winds and arid conditions hastened the pace at which the blaze spread. By Tuesday night, the Eaton fire ignited in a wooded region north of downtown LA, while the Hurst fire erupted in Sylmar, a suburban area located north of San Fernando, following a brush fire incident.
These visuals, produced by NASA’s Black Marble tool which identifies ground light sources, illustrate the extent to which the Palisades and Eaton fires expanded within a span of fewer than 24 hours.
On Tuesday, the Palisades fire had engulfed 772 acres. By the time of publication on Friday, the fire had expanded to encompass nearly 20,500 acres, approximately 26.5 times its original size.
The Palisades fire was the first to ignite, but subsequent fires developed in the following days.
At around 1 PM on Wednesday, the Lidia fire was initially reported in Acton, adjacent to the Angeles National Forest situated to the north of LA. Smaller compared to the others, firefighters succeeded in containing the fire by 75% by Friday.
On Thursday, the Kenneth fire was reported at 2:40 PM local time, as per the Ventura County Fire Department, near a location referred to as Victory Trailhead situated at the junction of Ventura and Los Angeles counties.
This footage captured from a fire-monitoring camera in Simi Valley reveals smoke clouds rising from the Kenneth fire.
Sky News examined infrared satellite imagery to demonstrate how these fires proliferated throughout LA.
The most significant fires are still far from being controlled, leading to the evacuation of thousands of inhabitants from their residences as authorities sustained extensive evacuation orders. It remains unclear when they will be permitted to return.
“This is an enormous setback that will result in numerous individuals and businesses requiring substantial assistance as they commence the extremely slow process of reconstructing their lives,” remarked Mr. Porter.
“This event may indeed take several individuals and businesses up to a decade to fully recover from.”
The Data and Forensics team is a versatile unit committed to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyze, and visualize data to narrate data-driven stories. By merging traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite imagery, social media, and other open-source information, our multi-media storytelling seeks to elucidate the world while also revealing how our journalism is conducted.
