Unleashing the Fury: Storm Darragh’s 100mph Winds Signal Broader Climate Concerns

Storm Darragh marks the first severe weather event since last January’s Storm Isha to garner a red “threat to life” alert from the Met Office.

It has indeed fulfilled that unfortunate designation.

The maximum wind speed documented was 93mph (150kph) in Capel Curig, Wales, and at least one individual is believed to have perished due to the storm.

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Though Darragh may not have been the most formidable storm in recent memory, it was indeed a significant weather event. Officially classified as an extra-tropical cyclone, it spanned 1,000km (621 miles) across as it traversed the UK.

Spinning anti-clockwise, as is typical of such systems, it enveloped our shorelines with winds primarily originating from the north and east, while the most intense gusts surged in from the southwest.

It has been just over two weeks since Storm Bert unleashed widespread flooding and strong winds across Wales and southern England, with four named storms recorded in the past three months.

Consequently, it is reasonable to inquire: Is the UK experiencing an uptick in storm activity?

The 2023/24 storm season has undeniably been severe, featuring 12 named storms. The Met Office advanced so far through the alphabet that the season concluded with Lilian’s yellow warnings for rain and wind in August.

In contrast, the preceding season recorded merely two named storms. To find a comparable number, one would need to look back to the 2015/16 period, which experienced 11 named storms.

The landscape becomes more complicated when considering records prior to that time, as the naming system was introduced in 2015, rendering comparisons impossible.

Nevertheless, experts assert that the storm season of 2013/14 was the most impactful in at least the past twenty years.

At least 12 named storms led to extensive coastal flooding and prolonged inundation of the Somerset levels.

No evident trends

A recent analysis of storm data spanning over four decades has uncovered no apparent correlation between the rapid warming of our planet and the frequency of North Atlantic storms.

The jet stream – the high-altitude air current that typically guides our weather patterns over the North Atlantic – has a complex and, as of now, enigmatic relationship with climate change.

Presently, the most plausible conjecture indicates that storms may become both more frequent and gustier as the world warms by approximately two degrees over the coming decades. However, this remains an unpredictable forecast given the current circumstances.

A more evident connection lies in the correlation between rising temperatures and the volume of rainfall produced by storms.

Average winter precipitation has been on the rise throughout Northern Europe, which can be elucidated using basic physics principles.

Increased rainfall anticipated as the climate warms

With each degree rise in temperature, the atmosphere can retain an additional 7% water vapor – moisture that ultimately descends as precipitation.

Likewise, warmer oceans tend to release their moisture more rapidly and provide amplified energy – in the form of heat – to storms.

The trend in sea temperatures – especially in the North Atlantic, where most storms originate – has been remarkably pronounced in recent years.

In the year 2023/24, surface temperatures have been recorded to be significantly higher—by up to a degree or more—than the average since the 1980s.

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As Storm Darragh continues its path, we will experience what our increasingly wet future holds.

The weather system is unleashing rain across much of the UK, impacting even those regions that were fortunately spared the brunt of its destructive winds.