There’s no doubt who currently holds the advantage in the Tory leadership race.
James Cleverly vaulted to the top, surpassing his opponents – taking advantage of a thoughtfully crafted, engaging conference address aimed at uplifting the party’s spirit.
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A message from the Tory center that appears to resonate across various factions. Aspirations among competing camps that the conference would have minimal impact have not materialized.
Nonetheless, this does not alone secure triumph, and uncertainty looms about what lies ahead.
One additional round of eliminations is set for tomorrow before approximately 170,000 party members cast their votes. What insights can be gleaned from today’s results and the subsequent briefings regarding future developments?
Today’s events revealed three key insights, as the remaining factions vie for their candidates to secure a place in the final two.
What did we discover:
• Kemi Badenoch is distinctly targeting the Tory right, indicating little effort to court the majority of Tom Tugendhat’s backers, who are predominantly – albeit not exclusively – one-nation Conservatives. In a statement tonight, she asserts that “the right of the Conservative Party must now rally behind Kemi” – suggesting she continues to chip away at Robert Jenrick’s supporters, despite falling behind him today. This is a particularly audacious strategy, especially since some members of the ERG (European Research Group) have had disagreements with Ms. Badenoch during Rishi Sunak’s premiership.
• Robert Jenrick appears to be losing momentum. Rival factions are seizing on the decrease in support for Mr. Jenrick, dropping from 33 MP votes in the previous round to 31 votes today. However, Jenrick’s supporters had anticipated he would secure 35-40 votes today, indicating a significant underachievement relative to expectations. It seems the conference may have adversely affected him – his speech did not receive the same level of acclaim as others – resulting in a lost opportunity to claim the top position among MPs.
• Is James Cleverly so far ahead that he might contemplate maneuvering for Jenrick to be his rival in the final round? According to a YouGov poll of Tory members conducted prior to the conference speeches, Mr. Jenrick was only four points ahead of Mr. Cleverly, while Ms. Badenoch held a more significant lead. Given the narrow margins separating the second and third positions, could he potentially “lend” some votes to secure an easier opponent?
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YouGov polling indicated that public sentiment had led to the ousting of the most favored contender among Tory MPs today – Mr. Tugendhat, while Mr. Cleverly and Mr. Jenrick were nearly tied, with Ms. Badenoch trailing as the least favored.
But what truly matters to the influential Tory members?
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Leading the list was the members’ demand for “integrity and honesty”, followed closely by “conservative values”. A mere 2% prioritized “winning the election.”
This highlights the uncertainty surrounding the ultimate outcome, regardless of where enthusiasm lies this evening.
