Statements made by the IDF’s head of staff to Israeli troops along the northern border have created a perception that a ground incursion into Lebanon may be imminent.
“Your military boots will step into adversarial land, into villages that Hezbollah has established as significant military bases,” Lt General Herzi Halevi communicated to the personnel.
“Your forceful entry into those regions, your engagement with Hezbollah operatives, will demonstrate to them what it means to confront a proficient, highly trained, and combat-experienced force.”
Stay updated: ‘We are targeting Lebanon to prepare for a potential invasion’
This may resemble a pre-war rallying cry, but there are indicators that the command to proceed has not yet been issued.
Explicitly warning Hezbollah about a forthcoming invasion would be an unusual strategy, yet Halevi’s remarks will certainly have resonated on the other side of the border.
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IDF gearing up for Lebanon ground invasion
In the context of warfare, language can wield as much power as any arms.
In recent days, Israeli warplanes have targeted high-ranking Hezbollah officials, weapon caches, and strategic facilities.
These actions undermine Hezbollah’s capacity to combat and weaken the adversary in preparation for a possible invasion, should such an order be issued. This is a conventional military approach in the initial stages of conflict.
Red dots indicate Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Source: Institute for the Study of War
The mobilization of two reserve brigades today is also a reasonable measure if a ground invasion is on the horizon – they will offer support and reinforcement to the units already stationed at the border.
While Israel has recorded notable successes in air operations over the past eight days, Hezbollah persists in launching missiles deep into Israeli territory, with the Tel Aviv region now targeted for the first time today, prompting consideration of alternative escalation strategies.
Although a ground invasion would be seen as a measure of last resort, we are approaching that juncture if circumstances do not shift because, at the very least, Israel currently has fewer options available.
As I compose this, Benjamin Netanyahu is still scheduled to fly to New York on Thursday to address the UN General Assembly, yet an aide mentioned earlier that travel arrangements are evolving rapidly as the situation unfolds.
Would he depart the nation if the military is on the brink of entering Lebanon? Unlikely.
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Should he proceed to the US east coast, he is likely to utilize the journey to engage in private discussions with allies and leverage the UN platform to remind the global community of the events that occurred on 7 October.
Tonight, there are initial indications of some diplomatic activity – President Biden is reportedly nearing a proposal for a cessation of hostilities.
This could be announced as early as tonight, however, given the recent history of the US, expectations for a ceasefire remain muted.
Despite this, Prime Minister Netanyahu has directed his close associate Ron Dermer to communicate to the White House that Israel is open to dialogue.
This could be sincere, but Netanyahu likely anticipates Hezbollah will reject any proposal, rendering it a tactic to enhance the legitimacy of a future ground invasion by asserting that Hezbollah dismissed overtures for negotiation.
We can assert with some certainty that Israel has sanctioned preparations for an invasion of Lebanon and Israeli forces are ready for the command to advance, but the timeline for that command remains uncertain – if it will come at all.
